Hindsight:

Endowed with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, astute scholars can
often perceive an apparent discrepancy between past predictions
and the actual course of history.  The myopic view of experts and
public administrators notwithstanding, more visionary
technological forecasts are frequently made in the spirit of a
blind religious faith in unrelenting, unimpeded "progress", and
they can seem outrageously optimistic in the context of the
times.  Yet, as political scientist Jim Dator has asserted,
"projections about the future are really more about the present
than about what is likely to happen in the years ahead" (Marien
and Jennings, 1987).  Consequently, the forecaster more often
than not grossly underestimates the true course of scientific and
technical advancement.  

<ffile12>   Prediction Problems
<ffile14>   Prognostications